Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the southern portion of the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N, extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 02N50W. No significant convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough extends from the central United States southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern Gulf waters. At the surface, the Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are noted north of 20N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado